QB Stock Market Week 2: Why Caleb Williams’ Ceiling Is Best QB On The Planet

Let’s kick things off with a few things I didn’t see coming. New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough is the NFL’s passing leader. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards (second-most) behind a bottom-10 offensive line — and still lost. Jacoby Brissett looked like Jared Goff. Drake Maye threw three interceptions, including one that sealed the Pats’ loss to the Seahawks. But Jaxson Dart took no unnecessary hits — and took care of himself and the ball — en route to the Giants’ decisive win over the Cowboys. Caleb Williams looked like he could soon be the best QB on the planet. Trevor Lawrence also looked like he could soon be the best QB on the planet! And last but not least, Patrick Mahomes got the ball out in 2.27 seconds on Monday night — fastest in the NFL among QBs taking five-plus dropbacks. He’s still the fastest gun in the (AFC) West. He wasn’t brilliant, but he remains great, overcoming the ACL injury, overcoming left tackle issues and overcoming the Broncos’ elite defense. Welcome back to the QB Stock Market. This isn’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Deshaun Watson — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. We only have one week to evaluate, and so these rankings might surprise folks. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 In Week 1, Drake Maye’s performance against the Seattle Seahawks was reminiscent of how Josh Allen used to play against the New England Patriots. Going back to 2018, Bill Belichick drew up nasty and exotic blitzes to spin Allen’s head. And because Allen couldn’t make sense of those blitzes, game after game, Belichick kept sending them. You could see how much joy Belichick took in the game plan, with disguises and wrinkles and eccentricity, specifically designed to beat up on Allen. Belichick must’ve looked forward to it. And then their fifth matchup rolled around. It was 2020. Belichick thought he could fool Allen, as usual. But Allen passed for 320 yards and four touchdowns. It flipped the paradigm in the AFC East. Allen never looked back. And it was one of the many things that cost Belichick his job. The Seahawks-Patriots rivalry feels like the same dynamic, with coach Mike Macdonald burying Maye with brain-twisting blitzes and disguises. To make matters worse, Maye’s three interceptions in Seattle were not overly complicated reads. They were simply egregious mistakes. The final interception was, easily, the worst decision of Maye’s career — nosediving the team’s chances in the worst way. It’s not just the Seahawks, though. Complicated defenses have a tendency to overwhelm Maye. So this feels like the same dynamic — except that we don’t know if it’ll end like it did for Allen. I expect Maye to jump back into the top 10. But it’ll depend completely upon an “aha” moment. It’ll depend completely upon Maye completing the Allen comparison, with that final developmental leap, not just by winning with talent — but by outsmarting defenses. C.J. Stroud lost it for the Texans. That hurts to say, because he got the Texans in position for a win against the Bills. He kept it close the whole way, with 274 passing yards and two touchdowns. It was a good game until that last drive. Trailing with minutes left, he drove Houston into scoring position — only to take a pair of sacks that ruined everything. For those two plays, he looked like the same deer in headlights that we saw in the playoffs against the Patriots. For those two sacks, he looked like the guy who was not deserving of a contract extension. How do we reconcile those two plays with the rest of his performance? Let’s start with the sack that was most egregious. And it wasn’t the one that ended the game. On first-and-9 with 30 seconds left and goal-to-go, Stroud took a sack from Bills defensive lineman Deone Walker. The Texans’ win probability took the most pronounced hit of the entire game, sinking a full 38.7%, per Next Gen Stats. Stroud held the ball for 3.8 seconds — way, way too long. Because this wasn’t blindside pressure. It came right up the middle. Stroud watched Walker close in, and ducked into the sack, rather than throw the ball away. Stroud didn’t look mentally ready for the play, which flipped the game in a matter of seconds. A few plays later, it was over. Bills edge Gregory Rousseau strip-sacked Stroud to end the game. It was a third-and-18, and the Texans, essentially, sent their receivers for the end zone. Nobody was open. Stroud held the ball for almost four seconds (which is way too long). But you can’t blame him, given that he had just one more down and 25 more seconds to score. Should he have thrown it away? Of course. Hindsight shows that, clearly. But I also understand why he wanted to make something happen — and risk the incoming pressure — by holding the ball a little longer. He wanted to eke out every opportunity to score on this play. I get that. In a weird way, I view this play differently than I did at the end of the game. So did the advanced stats, showing the Texans’ chances slipping 10.7% on the fumble. The rest of the game, Stroud was efficient. He battled with one of the league’s best teams and quarterbacks. The body of work — on the whole — was good. It’s just that Stroud’s errors on the final drive were irreconcilable. And the brutal truth is that those errors are the only plays we’ll remember from this game. Leave it to the Dallas Cowboys to put together the worst defensive series in all of football in Week 1. The Cowboys were worse — on the whole and on the Giants’ final scoring drive — than the Panthers, who allowed 59 points in Week 1. Dallas’ defensive expected points added per play was .363 (32nd). That’s because the Cowboys refused to cover the Giants’ checkdown option. So that’s exactly who Jaxson Dart threw to — three times in a row, including for a touchdown. Yes, seriously. Giants running back Devin Singletary had three catches in the flat on three consecutive plays. And the third was a 9-yard touchdown. It was pretty similar with every target to tight end Isaiah Likely, who had more room than he should have to operate in the middle of the field. Dart was 8 of 8 for 78 yards and two touchdowns when throwing to his new tight end. But after a season where I faulted Dart constantly for doing the wrong thing (constantly), I have to give him his flowers here. He took what the defense gave him. That’s basically the first rule of quarterbacking. His completion percentage over expected was +10.9%, and he attempted a fairly modest 17.2% tight-window throws. His time to throw was just 2.64 seconds, showing he was quick to get the ball out of his hands. It all speaks to a low-difficulty game plan against a low-talent defense. Dart did what he had to do to get the W. And in this case, he didn’t have to do much. It wasn’t totally Jared Goff’s fault that the Saints got back into their opener in Detroit, eating away at a 14-point lead and sending the game to overtime. The Lions defense shoulders plenty of that blame. But when looking at Goff’s fourth quarter, you can see a series of failed third-down conversions where he made mistakes. That let New Orleans back into it. On two third downs in the fourth quarter, Goff threw a pair of targets to Jameson Williams. In both instances, Goff made the catch more difficult than it needed to be. And there was a target for Amon-Ra St. Brown (another fourth-quarter third down) when Goff should’ve looked him off and found the second man in the progression. Williams, in particular, could’ve had a much bigger game if he and Goff had a cleaner connection. He had just four catches on his nine targets, and finished at a catch rate of 44.4% — 13.9% lower than expected, per Next Gen Stats. If Goff and Williams can figure out why, exactly, their connection grew frayed in this game, then this offense will benefit enormously. But Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown are incredible in pressure moments, including in overtime when Goff fired what seemed like a dangerous ball for St. Brown — only for the All-Pro wideout to snatch the ball away from a DB on the way into the end zone. Goff can be as precise as any quarterback in the NFL. But when he slips, even for three different third-downs, it can cost the Lions. Pocket passers — even good ones — have such a small margin for error. I think we’re past the point of thinking that Brock Purdy is simply a product of his supporting cast. I think we’re also seeing that his supporting cast can thrust him into the top 10. This 2026 roster might be better than the one that helped Purdy break out in 2023. While Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are absolutely superstars, I’m not sure we all view Brandon Aiyuk — or even Deebo Samuel — in that same light as we once did in 2023. Perhaps Purdy didn’t get the respect he deserved for helping those two receivers play at their peak. The crazy thing about this year’s team is that they’re sustaining the insane rate of injuries that’s typical only for San Francisco. For now, the 49ers are deep enough to withstand the rolling absences. Even with rookie receiver De’Zhaun Stribling exiting the opener in the first half, the 49ers stayed afloat with ample targets for Mike Evans and Samuel. And with rookie running back Kaelon Black looking more than capable in a (surprising) timeshare with McCaffrey, the All-Pro veteran will undoubtedly have fresher legs into December and January. This is all great news for Purdy. He’s never going to land in the tier of QBs who defy circumstance: Lamar Jackson, Allen and Mahomes. (The tier that’s in reach for supertalents such as Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and perhaps even Trevor Lawrence.) But Week 1 against the Rams reminded that, even when things are imperfect (a good defense, a bad set of injuries, a brutal travel schedule in Australia), Purdy can be dangerous. He’s often going to exceed expectations. There are a lot of throws that Caleb Williams makes that leave me in disbelief. But there was one throw on Sunday that left me wondering if he’s the only person on the planet who could’ve completed it. Allen and Mahomes could maybe pull this one off. But that uncertainty — that maybe — speaks to just how special it was. “He couldn’t have put it in a better spot,” Bears coach Ben Johnson said of the pass. OK, so let’s take a look. It’s a 22-yard touchdown to Cole Kmet. Williams rolled to the right — increasing the necessary air yards for the throw to 42.3 yards, per Next Gen Stats. And he had a 32% chance of completing the pass. There was even a pass-rusher closing in on the throw. Despite all that, Williams made this look effortless. It’s why so many Bears players and coaches told me there’s “no limit” to the offense when the 2024 No. 1 overall pick is at the helm. It’s why I’m bullish on the Bears having a real shot at making a run at making history and topping the 2013 Broncos’ scoring record. Williams was sensational (and so was the Bears’ run game). He didn’t even have to get Colston Loveland involved. Loveland, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden didn’t have to score a touchdown for Williams and Co. to put up almost 60 points. Williams and Ben Johnson already had the NFL’s attention. Soon, they’ll have the NFL’s respect. And by the season’s end, 31 teams will be studying the Bears to figure out what they can copy. Read More

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